چکیده :
For thepost-Kyotoperiod,Turkeystronglyemphasizestheestablishmentofnationalemissiontrading
systemby2015anditsintegrationwiththeEUETSalongitsaccessionprocesstotheEU.Inthispaper,we
study themechanismsofadjustmentandeconomicwelfareconsequencesofvariousETSregimesthat
Turkeyconsiderstoapplyby2020,i.e.regionalETSandinternationaltradingwithintheEUETS.We
conduct ouranalysisunderthecurrentEU20–20–20 emissiontarget,20%,andalsounderitsrevised
version, 30%.We find thatTurkeyhaseconomicgainsfromlinkingwiththeEUETSunderthe20%cap,in
comparison tothedomesticETSs.DespitetheEU's welfarelossunderlinkageincomparisontothecase
where Turkeyhasdomesticabatementefforts,itstillpreferslinkingasitincreaseseconomicwellbeing
compared tothecasewhereTurkeydoesnotabate.Under30%cutback,Turkeyhascriticaloutputloss
under linkageduetohighabatementburdenontheEU,whiletheEUisbetteroffasitpassessomeofits
abatement burdentoTurkey.Therefore,emissionquotasandtheirallocationacrosstheETSandnonETS
sectors becomehighlycriticalindistributingtheoveralleconomicgainsfrombilateraltrading.
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